CBS Evening News

In case you missed it Anthony Vulin was featured on the CBS Evening News regarding the changing housing market. Here is a link to the story and video:

Housing Market Cools Video

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Timing the Market: Is there a method to the madness?

Timing the Market: Is there a method to the madness?

An extended rise in real estate prices in almost every region of the country has invited an unprecedented transfer of investment capital out of the stock market and into the housing market. But many analysts foresee a cooling of the boom, and higher interest rates support that prediction. Real estate buyers and sellers are looking for ways to time the market, and the ones with professional experience are doing it by the numbers, not the emotions.

Interest rates for mortgages and other real estate loans are closely related to the overall performance of the real estate market, because those rates control the purse strings of the funds used to purchase property. Historically, any rates below 10 percent are reason to celebrate. But this comes are news to younger investors who have never seen double digit rates, and consider them a sign of the end of the world as they know it. They have enjoyed rates half that expensive for most of their adult lives, and as a result, have become accustomed to stratospheric housing prices that have doubled the average price of a single family home.

And because we live in a time when telecommunications tools have created a faster and more volatile global marketplace, the old rules of the lending game may no longer apply. What was once “historically” true may now be outmoded, outdated history – and unable to assist us in timing today’s markets. But there are some classic tips for analyzing real estate trends that still serve us well, in both bull and bear markets, and we can examine a couple of those in order to help you navigate the changing tide of the next wave.

One phenomenon that holds true when rates rise is that it often spurs sales of homes, contrary to conventional wisdom. The reason is that buyers who have been sitting on the proverbial fence, watching rates slide and trying to decide when to lock in their best (i.e., lowest) rate, suddenly panic when the numbers reverse and head upward. Rather than sitting by and idly watch interest rates climb beyond their reach, they jump in and buy without hesitation. This often brings a flock of reluctant buyers out of the woodwork, and can be a pleasing reaction to otherwise troubling news of inflationary rates. But the phenomenon is somewhat misleading, because this flurry of purchases is only harvesting the last crop of qualified buyers, without promising any new growth. In many parts of the country, this last hurrah has already happened, and sellers are now faced with a shrinking market that is quickly becoming a buyer’s – no longer a seller’s – market.

But how do we know whether it is a buyer’s or seller’s market? It is a bit like watching the tides when they begin to shift on a beach – only by looking very closely at the action of the currents can you observe the specific signs that indicate whether the water is receding or coming inland. But fortunately, one of the most dependable clues in the real estate business is also one of the easiest to read, and is based on how long it takes for a house to sell. To track this critical data, simply ask your Realtor to provide you with information on sales in your neighborhood, and make sure they include a category known as “time on the market”.

The broad average of this measure is normally about 12 weeks. But this can vary considerably, depending on the particular market dynamics of a given region of the country, section of town, or neighborhood. To gather accurate data related to your particular market, study the time on the market for your specific neighborhood of homes, by viewing the information from the local Multiple Listing Service or your Realtor.

In a wildly bullish market, time on the market may be a matter of days, not weeks. In a bear market, it can extend to six months or more. But as a general rule, whenever it takes an average of more than four months for houses to sell, it is defined as a buyer’s market. Conversely, if houses sell in two months or less, we have a seller’s market. Between the two ends of the scale, there is room for all sorts of change and variation, but you can adjust your reading of the market timeline by watching the figures related to the time on the market. If the average compresses to a matter of two or three weeks, it may be a sign that demand is extraordinary, and that the market is extremely favorable to sellers. During a recession, the time a house sits on the market can extend to years, even if sellers continue to drop the price. At such times, rather than running away from the real estate market, many professional investors go “bottom fishing”, and accumulate property at bargain basement prices.

To find a realtor or lender to help you make wise, educated decisions in any market, contact http://www.gayrealestate.com/ or http://www.gaymortgageloans.com/, the premier online real estate resources.

Market Conditions for December 2005

Although there are signs of slowing in certain regions, a real estate-led recession in California is unlikely, a UCLA forecast now says. The housing market is not accelerating, but is still cruising along at a quick pace, especially in the LA area. We are still a long way from seeing prices completely flatten out. I have seen condo prices continue to go up and sell in less then 30 days. Homes under a Million dollars are reacting in a similar way. For those of you lucky enough to be in a home over 1.5 Million, you probably won't be able to sell you home in less then 30 days, but hopefully in less then 90, if it is not over priced. I continue to see sellers over price homes. They are pricing them for more then any other home has sold for in their neighborhood. This is a huge mistake. I still think many sellers are not aware that the market is not the same as it was last spring, or for the last three years actually. You need to price homes close to what comparable homes have sold for, within a one mile radius, and within a 3 month period prior to putting your home on the market. That is how appraisers are pricing homes, and that is how I price homes. Interest rates are still a low 6.25% for a 30 year fixed, and no one expects a big change in this rate for a little wile. This is good news for buyers. If you are a buyer, buy this month! Homes have been on the market longer then any other time in the last 3 years and sellers are getting worried. This makes the listing price negotiable! I really hope all of you have a wonderful holiday season and a prosperous New Year. I will be celebrating the New Year in Rio, Brazil. Please contact me at anytime. My team and I would be honored to help you in anyway we can. Visit us online at either www.LARealtorToTheStars.com or www.TheMillenniumTeam.com (310) 623-1384.

Real estate purchases rebound

Real estate purchases rebound

Borrowers not thwarted by higher interest rates

Wednesday, December 7, 2005

Inman News

Overall mortgage applications were up 5.2 percent last week on a seasonally adjusted basis from the week before, with refinancings posting the largest increase, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey.

The seasonally adjusted refinance index increased by 7 percent to 1,596.4 from 1,484.3 one week earlier, while the purchase index increased by 4 percent to 495.1 from 476.2 the previous week.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 41 percent of total applications from 39.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate-mortgage share of activity increased to 33.1 percent of total applications from 33 percent the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.32 percent from 6.2 percent one week earlier. Points including the origination fee increased to 1.3 from 1.17 for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.84 percent from 5.72 percent. Points including the origination fee increased to 1.37 from 1.26 for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year adjustable-rate mortgages increased to 5.49 percent from 5.39 percent one week earlier. Points including the origination fee decreased to 0.91 from 0.96 for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.

Washington, D.C.-based Mortgage Bankers Association is a national association representing the real estate finance industry. The survey covers approximately 50 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.

Should I Take My Home Off the Market During the Holidays?

When you look at your calendar you may find the months already overloaded with seasonal obligations -- shopping, entertaining, children's pageants, charity work, decorating the house, and so much more. If you are also trying to sell your home, you are under extra pressure to keep your home in "showtime" condition. And that could be the last thing you need before the holiday spirit is broken.

It is understandable why you would be tempted to take your home off the market during the holidays. And the list of justifications is long. If you are too busy, buyers may be also, and you may find your efforts unrewarded by enough showings. And what if you do get an offer? You may be faced with the possibility of packing and moving during the busiest time of the year.

Besides, you can give your house a rest, and it will have better momentum after the holidays. Better to just pack it in and start fresh in January, right?

But wait! Most top Realtors agree that taking your home off the market during the Christmas season is a mistake. The house surely isn't going to sell off the market! What is the advantage of that? So you're busy. Let your Realtor do the work. You can leave in the morning, go to work, go shopping, and let your Realtor take care of things.

The holidays are a wonderful selling period. Why? Because most people take off work sometime during the season. The husband and wife are both off and want to see houses. Most agents like the holidays because the buyers have more time, and they can look at homes together.

Before you take your home off the market, consider the following points:

Although buyer activity may appear to slow down, the buyers who are actively looking during the holidays are that much more serious. Agents believe the home market is no more affected at Christmas than during other "busy" periods. If that were so, the market would shut down throughout the year as families concentrate on spring weddings, June graduations, summer vacations, and autumn back-to-school activities.

Many buyers deliberately choose to shop for a home after the busy spring and summer rush. They know that it will be easier to look, and that negotiations will be less stressful. They may not have children, or they may have grown children, so moving to accommodate the school year isn't a consideration. Finding the right home at the right price, however, is.

Relocating families often don't have a choice when they can leave for their new destination.

Although 68% of transferring families have children, many families have to transfer during the middle of the school year. These families are that much more motivated to get their families settled in before either the January semester begins, or to arrange for the move during spring break in March. If you sign a contract by New Year's Eve, the timing couldn't be more perfect.
At Christmas time, our culture focuses on family and the home. Preparing for the indoor activities of winter is one of the most enjoyable periods of family life. Allowing buyers to view your home during this most hospitable of seasons lets them better picture their own family life in the attractive environment you have created.

When is your home ever more beautiful and inviting? You have cleaned and decorated, and your home looks like a picture postcard. If the results are good enough for family and friends, they will surely be good enough to impress your buyers. Get the family team on board to do a five-minute blitz pick-up every morning to keep holiday messes to a minimum.

With reduced inventories and motivated buyers, you will have all the members of the MLS on your team. You may find you have more showings than you would if you marketed your home during a busier time of the year.

If you do get a contract, you can arrange the terms to suit your needs. If moving during the holidays isn't an option, you can put in the closing date of your choice. Most people can close 30 to 60 days after a contract is written, so there is plenty of time. Possession and closings are very negotiable.

Written by Blanche Evans

Wondering What Your Home Is Worth? -- Let me show you.

Buying a near the Holidays House

A couple of weeks back, I talked about selling houses during the holidays when really serious buyers are out in force.

Since we bought our first house in the first week of January and sold it on Dec. 31, and bought our third house a week before Christmas, I thought I was standing on really firm ground in my recommendation.

That is, however, until my wife made me drive three blocks from my street to get a load of the "Christmas house."

Every gadget, gimmick and kind of light available on the market today covers this place from dusk to dawn and then some. I'm absolutely certain that planes landing at the international airport across the river use it as a directional finder in foggy weather.

Christmas is not the only holiday that finds this house awash in decoration. The giant inflatable turkey that replaces the giant inflatable pumpkin the day after Halloween is replaced by the giant inflatable Santa Claus surrounded by enough fiber-optic animals to fill Albert Lea State Park in Minnesota.

Unfortunately, no wide open spaces exist between houses on this street, which means that how neighbors live is influenced heavily by blinding brightness and the perpetual ho-ho-ho-ing of the multiple Santas.

I'm sure you are calling me a Grinch, and so be it. Although I do decorate my house for Christmas each year, we err on the side of minimalism and taste.

So, he's a snob, you are saying. Not really. I do, however, consider the sensibilities of my neighbors and the overall livability of the neighborhood, just as they do mine.
We celebrate the holidays, but the electric company's bottom line doesn't rise or fall on how we do it.

The owners of the Christmas house are exuberant about the holidays, for sure. But, as my wife suggests, how do sellers and agents trying to market a house on that street accommodate buyers who may not understand such exuberance?

There are probably as many people who would understand and who wouldn't, but in a slowing market with an increasing supply and declining demand, you don't want to play the numbers game.

Enthusiasm reflected by the decorations could be construed as "pushy" behavior in other matters. For example, if the neighbors see nothing wrong in imposing their "tastes" in decorations on others, what would stop them from running a gas mower at 7 a.m. every Sunday or repairing their cars in the driveway?

It comes down to location. People buy where they live and what they live in. It is sheer folly from a house-as-an-investment perspective to buy the nicest house around that's next door to a light show.

The few advantages -- eliminating the need to turn on your own indoor lights and saving money on electricity -- would be outweighed by the association of where you live and what is next door.
"Oh, you must live next to the Christmas house," people would say. "I'll bet it feels strange wearing sunglasses at night."

In their haste to buy, a lot of people often are willing get into potentially uncomfortable situations.

One fellow I know bought a house next door to a collector of old cars, and began to complain about "abandoned wrecks" after a few months.

When I reminded him that those "wrecks" were sitting in the neighbor's front yard before my friend bought the house, he replied that he hadn't realized how much the cars would bother him.
You can't anticipate problems, no matter how much you wish you could. If you buy a house down the street from a new-home development in its first phase, you can assume that there will be more houses, dust and noise from construction and more people using your street.

Even if you buy in a "perfect" neighborhood, there is no guarantee that such perfection will endure forever. That's if you are foolish enough to search for "perfection."

The owners of a house we once considered buying told us that we seemed to be people very much like them and exactly like everyone else in the neighborhood. We didn't run screaming from the house, but we went on to pick a neighborhood that reflected the diversity of where we had been living for six years, which was a block from a public housing project.

The housing-project neighborhood wasn't perfect by any stretch, but it wasn't as bad as everyone had led us to believe.

For some buyers, living near the Christmas house might be just the ticket.

Especially if they have a good supply of sunglasses.

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When the Home Inspection Kills a Sale
Housing Groups Say Reality Show Went Too Far
The Importance of Disclosure

Written by Al Heavens
December 8, 2005

Holiday Plans

My family has always been an important part of my life. This time of year Is always my favorite because I get to see my family much more than usual.

On thanksgiving, my dad and I passed out food to members of the Beacon House in San Pedro. This is a charity my dad works closely with and its been a tradition for me to join him every thanksgiving. My sister Marie just became a 4th grade teacher and I look forward to watching a holiday program her and her students will be putting on.

On Christmas eve, I will be with the Croatian side of my family in San Pedro enjoying a traditional seafood dinner. On Christmas day, I will be with the Italian side of my family in Palos Verdes enjoying homemade manicotti that my mom and I make.

What will you be doing for the holiday's? what ever it is, I hope you will enjoy your friends and family as much as I will.

Best Wishes for a fun and safe holiday season!

Anthony Vulin